Against players who fold too much

In this lesson

• Spot a player who folds more than the bet size allows, from your own data.
• Bluff with almost every hand that cannot win at showdown, and with weak pairs too.
• Bet your strongest hands smaller when the folds come at every size.
• Name the risk: what you lose if they stop folding.

Read first: Adjusting to the player pool · Advice, not a lock: every lesson opens.

Concepts used: GTO and exploitative play, MDF and alpha, Stealing the blinds

What a fold is worth

A pure bluff of b into a pot p breaks even when the opponent folds b / (p + b) of the time: a third of the pot needs 25%, half the pot 33.3%, three quarters 42.9%, the pot 50%. Every point above that line is profit. A pot-sized bluff, 10 into 10, against a player who folds 60%: 0.6 × 10 − 0.4 × 10 = 2 bb a time.

What Rail's best response changes

Lock a river opponent to fold more than the solve to every size, and the lab's best response changes three things at once. It bluffs with almost all of its hands that cannot win at showdown, and with the big sizes. It turns weak pairs and ace-high, which the solve checks, into bluffs too. And it bets its strongest hands smaller: the folds come at every size, so a big bet with the nuts would be folded more as well.

Where the folds come from, and what it costs

Nobody folds too much everywhere. Your own data says where: the opponents panel counts folds to a flop c-bet, and the pool section below sums them over your opponents. Bluff more where the interval clears the line, not everywhere.

And count the risk. On most rivers the lab tried, the over-bluffing costs less against a player who actually plays the baseline than it gains against the folder; against a player who notices and calls it down, it costs more than it gains on almost every river. The bigger the adjustment, the more it pays to be right.

From Rail's exploit lab: the read locked on a river solved on demand, the rest of the opponent's strategy kept at the solve. The ranges rest on Rail's narrowing model.

Rules of thumb

• A bluff of b into p needs b / (p + b) folds; everything above is profit.
• Against a folder, bluff with almost every hand that cannot win at showdown.
• Turn weak pairs and ace-high into bluffs too.
• Bet your strongest hands smaller: big bets get folded too.

When they break

• A player who folds too much to small bets may call big ones: check what your data counted.
• Once he starts calling, go back to the baseline before the bluffs cost you.

Example hands

Your own pool

Practice

The lesson is mastered when every exercise below that Rail can grade is passed. Missed items come back later as review cards.