Pot odds, step by step

On this page

• Work out the required equity as the call divided by the pot after you call.
• Convert pot odds between a ratio and a percentage.
• Count the bet as part of the pot so you never misprice a call.
• Say when pot odds alone are not enough because more cards and bets are coming.

Concepts used: Pot odds, MDF and alpha

The question every call answers

When you call a bet you are paying for a share of the pot. The call is worth it if your hand wins that pot often enough to pay back what you put in. Pot odds turn that into one number: the share of the time you need to win for the call to break even.

That number depends only on two amounts, the pot and the price. It does not care about your cards. Your cards decide how often you actually win; the pot odds decide how often you need to.

Two steps: the final pot, then your share of it

Step one: add up the pot you are playing for if you call. That is everything already in the middle, the bet you face, and your call on top. Step two: divide your call by that total. The result is the equity you need.

Say the pot is 30 bb and your opponent bets 15 bb. If you call, the pot becomes 30 + 15 + 15 = 60 bb, and 15 of those 60 are yours. You need to win 15 / 60 = 25% of the time.

The most common slip is to leave your own call out and divide 15 by 45. That gives 33%, which makes every call look worse than it is. The call is part of the pot you win, so it belongs in the total.

Ratios without the trap

Players often say pot odds as a ratio: "I am getting 3 to 1." That means the pot you can win, before your call, is three times your call. In the example above you call 15 to win the 45 already there: 45 to 15 is 3 to 1.

To turn a ratio into the equity you need, add the two sides and take your side as the share: 3 to 1 is 1 out of 4, which is 25%. Same number, two spellings. The percentage is easier to compare with your equity, which is why Rail always leads with it.

Sizes worth knowing by heart

Because only the ratio of bet to pot matters, every bet size has a fixed price. These are worth memorising, because they come up in every session:

• A quarter of the pot: about 17%.
• A third of the pot: 20%.
• Half the pot: 25%.
• Two thirds of the pot: about 29%.
• Three quarters of the pot: 30%.
• The size of the pot: about 33%.
• Twice the pot: 40%.

Notice how slowly the price grows. Doubling the bet from half pot to pot only moves the equity you need from 25% to about 33%. Small bets are cheap to call, and even huge bets never ask for more than half.

When the price is not the whole answer

Pot odds are exact when nothing happens after your call: on the river, or when someone is all in. Before that, more betting can follow, and the real price moves.

• Money you can win later when you hit makes a call better than its price says. That is implied odds.
• Money you can lose later when you hit a second-best hand, or bets that push you off your draw before it comes in, make it worse. That is reverse implied odds.
• Your equity has to be measured against the hands that actually bet like this, not against every hand the opponent could hold.

So the price is the starting point of every call, not the end of it. The equity and outs and realisation pages add the rest on top of it.

Rules of thumb

• Equity needed = call ÷ (pot before the bet + bet + call). Your own call is always in the total.
• Half pot asks for 25%, pot asks for about 33%, twice the pot asks for 40%.
• Compare the price with your equity against the betting range, not against a random hand.

When they break

• With cards still to come, more bets change the real price in both directions: implied and reverse implied odds.
• Against players who almost never bluff a big bet, your real equity is lower than a range chart suggests, so the price alone overstates a call.