Squeezing

A 3-bet after an open and a call: more money in the middle, and a caller who is unlikely to be strong.

What it is

A squeeze is a 3-bet made after one player has opened and at least one other has called.

It works for two reasons: the caller's chips are dead money you can win, and the caller's range is usually capped — with their strongest hands they would have 3-bet themselves. The opener, meanwhile, is caught between you and the caller.

Why it matters

More money in the pot means the same squeeze needs to work a little less often than a 3-bet against a lone opener.

But two players have to fold, not one. That is why squeezes are bigger than plain 3-bets — about one extra open size for each caller — and why they lean on hands that play well when called.

The maths

The fold rate a squeeze bluff needs equals the chips the squeeze risks divided by those chips plus the pot already in the middle.

Worked example

Squeezing from the button

The hijack opens to 2.5 bb, the cutoff calls, and you squeeze to 12 bb from the button. The pot before you act is 2.5 + 2.5 + 0.5 + 1 = 6.5 bb.

As a pure bluff it must take the pot 12 / (12 + 6.5) ≈ 64.9% of the time.
If the opener and the caller each fold 80% of the time, both fold 0.8 × 0.8 = 64% — just short.
The caller's capped range folds more often, say 90%: 0.8 × 0.9 = 72%, comfortably above the price.

A squeeze is profitable because the caller is weak, not just because there is more money in the middle. Against a caller who traps big hands, it is just an expensive 3-bet.

Try it

Change the dead money and the squeeze size to see how often it has to work.

Blinds and antes in the middle6.5 bb

Your open (chips risked)12 bb

How often they fold72%

Alpha: folds needed: 64.9%
EV if it never wins when called: +1.32 bbProfitable

Common mistakes

Squeezing to the same size as a 3-bet against one player.
Squeezing light against a caller known to flat strong hands.
Squeezing out of position from the blinds with hands that play badly when called.

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