ConceptsFoundations
Equity and equity realisation
Equity is your share of the pot if every card were dealt now; realisation is how much of it you actually collect.
What it is
Your equity is how often you would win (counting ties as half) if the remaining cards were dealt with no more betting. Real hands do not go to showdown for free: there are bets on later streets, and some of them push you off a hand that would have won.
Equity realisation is the share of that raw equity you turn into pot share once the betting is played out. A hand that realises 80% of its 40% equity behaves, in money terms, like a 32% hand. It can go above 100%: a hand in position that wins pots it would lose at showdown, by betting when the opponent checks, realises more than its equity.
Why it matters
It is why raw equity is not enough to call. Preflop, a hand can have the equity the price asks and still lose money, because it will often fold on the flop before that equity is cashed.
Realisation is higher in position, with hands that make strong hands (suited, connected, pairs), with the betting initiative, and with shallower stacks. It is lower out of position, with offsuit hands that make weak top pairs, and deep.
It also explains why the big blind can defend wide but not everything: it is getting a great price, but it plays the hand out of position.
The maths
Realised equity equals equity times R, the realisation factor.
- R
- the share of equity a hand turns into pot share; 1 means all of it
Worked example
Two hands with the same equity in the big blind
The button opens to 2.5 bb and the small blind folds. In the big blind the call costs 1.5 bb into a pot of 4 bb, so it needs 1.5 / 5.5 ≈ 27.3% equity. Against a wide button range, 7♥6♥ has about 39.5% and K♦4♣ about 40.3%.
- Raw equity says both are easy calls: about 40% against 27.3% needed.
- Suppose, for illustration, that 7♥6♥ realises 90% of its equity: it makes straights, flushes and two pairs, and can keep betting when it hits.
- Suppose K♦4♣ realises 65%: it mostly makes one pair with a weak kicker, and out of position it often folds to the second bet.
- Realised: 0.395 × 0.9 ≈ 35.5% for 7♥6♥ and 0.403 × 0.65 ≈ 26.2% for K♦4♣.
Same raw equity, opposite answers: 7♥6♥ clears the 27.3% comfortably, K♦4♣ falls just short. The realisation factors here are assumptions for the example; real ones come from solving the whole hand.
Try it
Pick a hand and a range to see its raw equity, then slide the realisation factor and watch where it crosses the price.
Common mistakes
- Calling preflop because an equity calculator says the hand is "ahead of the range". Equity at showdown is not money in your stack.
- Treating realisation as a property of the hand alone. The same hand realises more in position, with the initiative, or with less money behind.
- Forgetting the other side: hands that realise poorly can still be fine raises, because a raise can win the pot right away.