ConceptsBetting
Bluff-catching
Calling with a hand that beats only bluffs: the price says how often they need to be bluffing.
What it is
A bluff-catcher is a hand that loses to every value bet and beats every bluff. On the river it has no outs and no showdown value against the hands that bet for value; it wins only when the bet was a bluff.
Whether to call is then a single question: does the betting range contain more bluffs than the price asks for?
Why it matters
Most hard river decisions are bluff-catches. Folding every one lets the opponent bluff with impunity; calling every one pays off every value bet.
The price of the call is the share of bluffs that makes calling break even. A balanced bettor bluffs exactly that often; real opponents rarely do.
Blockers decide which bluff-catchers call first: the ones that block value hands and do not block bluffs.
The maths
The bluff share a call needs equals the bet divided by the pot plus twice the bet, where the pot is before the bet.
The EV of calling equals the bluff share times the pot plus the bet, minus the value share times the bet.
Worked example
A three-quarter-pot river bet
The pot is 20 bb and your opponent bets 15 bb on the river. You have a pure bluff-catcher.
- The call needs 15 / (20 + 30) = 30% bluffs.
- If they bluff 25%: 0.25 × 35 − 0.75 × 15 = −2.5 bb. Fold.
- If they bluff 40%: 0.40 × 35 − 0.60 × 15 = +5 bb. Call.
The call is a judgement about their bluff share, not about your hand. Your hand only decides whether you are a bluff-catcher at all.
Try it
Move the opponent's bluff share and watch the EV of calling turn positive at the price.
Common mistakes
- Calling with a hand that beats nothing the opponent can have — not even their bluffs.
- Folding every bluff-catcher because "they always have it".
- Choosing the bluff-catcher that blocks their bluffs instead of their value.
- Calling because of how much is already in the pot, rather than because of the price.
In your hands
Hands from your library where the analysis flagged this:
Opens your analysis, filtered. You need to be signed in; nobody else sees your hands.
Related concepts
- MDF and alphaMDF is how much of your range has to continue against a bet; alpha is how often that bet must make you fold.
- Blockers and unblockersYour cards are not in anyone else's hand: holding one removes the combos that need it.
- GTO and exploitative playAn equilibrium strategy cannot be beaten; an exploitative one beats a particular opponent harder, and can be beaten back.